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Open Kimono · Strategy Dossier

Iris — the S&P opening-range engine

Most vendors show you the wins and hide the rest. This is the opposite: exactly where Iris makes money, exactly where it gets hurt, and the process we run to pull it back before a fading edge becomes your drawdown.

Instrument · MES (micro S&P 500) Style · Opening-range breakout Session · From the 09:30–09:45 ET range Chart · MES 1-minute · Tick Replay ON

What it actually does

Same idea as Aperture, pointed at a different market.

Iris measures the first fifteen minutes of the US session on the S&P micro contract and trades the break of that range. The market draws the line; the engine trades what happens to it.

Running it alongside Aperture is deliberate but it comes with a caveat we would rather state than have you find out: the S&P and the Nasdaq are correlated markets. Two opening-range engines on two correlated indices are not two independent bets, and on a day when the open fails in both, they will tend to fail together. Size the pair accordingly — that is exactly the trap this whole portfolio approach exists to avoid.

Like Aperture it must be running before 09:30 ET, and it needs Tick Replay on in the data series.

The honest two-sided ledger

Where it wins. Where it hurts.

Thrives in

  • Index days with direction from the bell. A session that establishes a direction early and holds it is what the engine is built for.
  • Volatility at the open. The opening range has to be wide enough to be worth breaking.
  • Trend days. Once the S&P commits, the break tends to extend rather than round-trip.

Faces duress in

  • Failed breaks back into the range. The break triggers, price re-enters the range, and often continues out the far side. Its #1 weakness.
  • Narrow opens. A compressed first fifteen minutes gives a break with no room.
  • Correlated failure with Aperture. When index opens fail broadly, both engines are on the wrong side of the same day. Worth planning for rather than discovering.

The weakness is the point — and here it is a shared one. Iris and Aperture are the closest pair in the book. The rest of the portfolio is chosen to make money in conditions where opening-range engines struggle.

The regime truth

Low strike rate, big winners — and correlated with its sibling.

Iris has the same shape as Aperture: it loses small on the days the break fails, and the account is carried by the days that break and run. Most trades are not winners, by design.

The additional honesty this page owes you is about correlation. We publish a correlation view of the whole book precisely so you can see which engines move together, and these two do more than most. That is a sizing decision, not a reason to drop one of them.

Range-bound opens
Not its market
Breaks fail back insideFollow-through thinResult small losses accumulate
Directional opens
Where the edge lives
Breaks extendFollow-through strongResult positive expectancy

The flip side of that honesty: if you run Iris and Aperture together, treat them as one position for risk purposes on any day the whole index complex is chopping.

Risk & bail-out

Drawdown-first, with hard lines that don't move.

A resting protective stop from the moment the position opens, sized from your risk settings rather than a fixed tick count.

A daily loss line flattens and stands the strategy down for the session. Nothing is held overnight.

You control the cash at risk and the maximum contracts. Everything else is locked to the tested configuration.

How we catch decay before it’s too late

We monitor this like a model, not a hunch.

Every edge decays eventually — ours included. The difference is whether you find out from a dashboard or from your account balance. Iris runs inside a monitoring loop that compares every live trade against its learned baseline and raises a flag the moment behavior drifts.

1
Learn the baselineEvery historical and live trade is captured in one identical format — so the system always knows what “normal” looks like for this strategy.
2
Watch for driftLive expectancy is scored against baseline continuously. Slipping toward half of normal is a trim signal; toward a third or negative is a bench-and-review signal.
3
Watch the regimeIf Iris starts trading in the conditions where it historically loses, that raises a flag on its own — before the losses pile up.
4
Watch the machineryA separate check confirms the exit logic — where the money actually gets banked — is still firing and capturing what it should. A silent exit failure gets caught here, not months later.
5
Re-optimize on a clockParameters are reviewed against the current market on a fixed 30-day cadence — never carried forward blindly from a market that has moved on.

The promise. We would rather pull Iris back a month early than a day too late. When the data says the edge is thinning, we trim or bench it — publicly — instead of hoping it comes back.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE — NO ACTUAL TRADING

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT TRADING RESULTS.

Every figure and characterization on this page is derived from backtested results produced in the NinjaTrader® Strategy Analyzer. No orders were executed in a funded account and no money was at risk. Results are net of commission as charged by the platform and one full tick of slippage on every contract on every trade.